Growth Curves and Forecasting Logic

This session matters because forecasts must be grounded in plausible growth dynamics, not intuition alone. Building on emergence indicators, students examine logistic and Gompertz curves and interpret inflection points. The session links evidence trends to model fit and uncertainty. Students produce a short forecast narrative paragraph describing curve selection and implications. Skills developed include growth-curve reasoning, model diagnostics, and uncertainty framing. These forecasting logics support scenario building and portfolio choices in the next session.